Dél-Korea 2036: Egy számítási hiba majdnem megbuktatta a 2036-os olimpiai pályázatot
At Hwasan Gymnasium in Jeonju, North Jeolla Province, on January 26, during the ‘2036 Jeonju Summer Olympics Bid Support Ambassador·Supporters Appointment Ceremony,’ Governor Kim Kwan-Young of North Jeolla and other officials pose for a commemorative photo. Provided by North Jeolla Province
The economic feasibility assessment of North Jeolla Province’s bid for the ‘2036 Jeonju Summer Olympics’ has been overturned due to a basic analysis error by a state research institute. With the benefit-cost (B/C) value corrected from 1.03 to 0.91, changing the verdict from ‘economically eligible’ to ‘insufficient,’ the credibility of the strategy to host a multi-trillion-won international sporting event is expected to take a significant hit.
The North Jeolla Province Olympic Bid Committee held an emergency press conference at the provincial office on the 11th and stated that "the Korea Institute of Sport Science, the agency carrying out the commissioned study, identified an error in applying the baseline year during the economic analysis," and that "it was notified the benefit-cost (B/C) value was corrected from the previous 1.03 to 0.91".
Earlier, North Jeolla Province held a final briefing on the preliminary feasibility study on January 26 and announced that the B/C value had been derived as 1.03. Because a B/C of 1 or higher is evaluated as having economic feasibility, the province at that time emphasized that the Jeonju Olympics was a project with sufficient national investment value.
In that study, the total project cost was calculated at 6.9086 trillion won. Of this, facility costs accounted for 1.7608 trillion won (25.5%), and operating costs 5.1478 trillion won (74.5%). North Jeolla Province also attached meaning to this as a result that numerically demonstrated the possibility that Jeonju, a regional city, could lead an international mega-event.
However, once it was confirmed that the baseline year had been applied incorrectly in the economic analysis process, the B/C value was revised downward to 0.91. In particular, it is known that a re-examination was conducted after the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism raised concerns upon noticing that the economic feasibility figures for Jeonju had been calculated identically to those for Seoul, a competing candidate site.
According to Ministry of Planning and Budget guidelines, the base date for economic analysis must be set as the end of the year preceding the start of the commissioned study. Since the study began in April 2025, the baseline year should have been 2024, but it was confirmed that the Korea Institute of Sport Science made an error by applying a 2021 baseline in the cost calculation form.
An official at the Korea Institute of Sport Science apologized, stating, "We take full responsibility for the error in the economic analysis." However, given that the feasibility judgment for a multi-trillion-won national project was overturned by a simple input error, controversy over inadequate verification appears unavoidable.
Immediately after the notice, North Jeolla Province asked the Korea Institute of Sport Science to re-examine the economic analysis and to review the entire report, including rerunning the AHP (hierarchical analysis) overall evaluation reflecting the change in the B/C value. As a result of the recalculation, the B/C value fell to 0.91, but the AHP overall evaluation score used to judge whether to proceed with the project came out at 0.620. AHP is a decision-making technique that comprehensively evaluates not only economic feasibility but also policy validity, public interest, project execution capacity, and public opinion; generally, a score of 0.5 or higher is deemed to indicate project feasibility.
North Jeolla Province maintains that there is no problem in pushing the project forward. The AHP score also fell from 0.665 to 0.620, but it remained above the threshold.
This preliminary feasibility study is a statutory procedure carried out for about 10 months, from April last year to January this year, by the Korea Institute of Sport Science, the expert organization designated by the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism under the Act on Assistance to International Sporting Events. North Jeolla Province had regarded this as passing the first official gateway toward securing the Olympics.
As its Olympic bid strategy, North Jeolla Province proposes minimizing new stadium construction and utilizing existing sports facilities and temporary venues. Of the 51 competition venues in total, 32 would be located within the province and 19 distributed to other regions, with the aim of reducing fiscal burdens and improving operational efficiency. Major events such as the opening and closing ceremonies, swimming, archery, table tennis, badminton, taekwondo, and the football final would be concentrated in the Jeonju area, while a distributed hosting model is also under review in which some events, including athletics and tennis, and rowing/canoeing, would be held in other areas such as Seoul.
North Jeolla Province envisions hosting the Summer Olympics in a regional city for the first time in 48 years since the 1988 Seoul Olympics, thereby presenting a model for balanced national development and a sustainable Olympics. However, there are also suggestions that, because the economic analysis results a key indicator in bidding for international sporting events were corrected belatedly, questions over credibility could become a variable in future government reviews and international competition.
A North Jeolla Province official said, "Regardless of the change in the B/C value, the objective feasibility indicators for the project are being maintained," adding, "We will push ahead without delay with the administrative procedures and preparations to secure the Jeonju Summer Olympics, including government reviews."