CIVIL MOVEMENT TO STAGE THE OLYMPIC GAMES IN HUNGARY

Appointing the host city for the 2012 Olympic Games makes it seasonable to deal with the cherished idea of hosting the Olympic Games in Hungary and to make efforts for its implementation. The „Budapest Olympic Movement” civil association holds those significant powers together who are convinced that – on the grounds of a real national unity urged by a civil initiative and with the positive participation of the decision-makers – the Olympic Games can be staged and Budapest has to run for organising the first summer Olympics (2016 and 2020) following the Games in London. The Movement is convinced that staging the Games serves the interests of both the capital and the country having a long term positive effect on their development.

Objectives and Effects of the Budapest Olympic Games

The Role of the Olympic Games

At the beginning of the 21st century the Olympic Games – the competition of the nations – do not only mean a sport event, the tournament of sportsmen, but also a contest for creativity and spirits which sounds the power and pride of a nation. Even in the preparation phase teams of cities and nations fight for obtaining the title of candidate cities and in a second round they compete for being appointed as a host city. All of them run in for an exam of national unity, sport diplomatic abilities and political intelligence for the world to see. The host city shall be in the limelight for seven wonderful years. During the Olympic preparations it may show its fantasy, innovation abilities, architectural and constructional knowledge and mobilising power to the international public. In the last phase when the Olympic competitions are staged, a country passes the exam of organizing abilities and willingness to sacrifice. The success (or failure) of the organization is worldwide. A nation shall be glorified and shall have long term good reputation abroad and national self-respect at home.

In the last decades there were very few events in Hungary that could put the country into the highlight and could led to a long term acknowledgement of the international public. The golden team of the Hungarian football in the 20th century (with Ferenc Puskás who is the most well-known Hungarian abroad), the days of the 1956 revolution, Hungary in the eighties as reform country belong to this list. Our reputation became worn-out and forgotten. Our country is not mentioned as an example for sport, politics and economy. This obscurity as a self-inducting process becomes more and more general and customary in the Hungarian public eye. We have to redefine Hungary for ourselves and for the world. Staging the Olympic Games offers a unique breakout point. The Olympic Games as a grand undertaking of the Hungarian spirit, economy and sport – if we do it well – places the country to a brand new and positive progression course and into the highlight of the international interest.

Besides its advantages staging the Olympic Games has risks too.

Advantages of Staging the Olympic Games

·       we shall witness a substantial leap forward: modern sport facilities, new roads, hotels, residential districts shall be built, the infrastructure shall be renewed and the capital shall develop as never since the end of the 19th century when its metropolis feature was created. The high-speed infrastructural development accelerates the country’s closing up to the European Union level.
·       as 40% of the infrastructural investments take place on national level – improving the public roads and railway system make the country towns also develop. The quickly constructed motorway system brings forward the closing up of the less developed areas of the country.
·       additional investments shall take place at the sports venues outside the capital.
·       developments in connection with the Olympic Games increase the trust in the country and encourage the flow of foreign capital into Hungary.
·       by staging the Olympic Games Budapest becomes the economic, financial and cultural centre of the region.
·       investments of the Olympic project may improve the utilization of the country's resources and according to PWC the increase of GDP may become by 0,1-0,2 % faster.
·       1,2 million tourists are expected to visit the Games. Due to the Olympics the reputation of the country grows which shall have positive effect on the future tourism.
·       it offers exceptional opportunity for country propaganda. Thousands of journalists and visitors arrive to the capital, get experiences and bring our good reputation to the world. During the years of preparation the ever growing media interest shall put our country into the highlight.
·       investments of the Olympic project shall have positive effect on employment.
·       substantial effect on human resources: development of personal capabilities, international experience and reputation – a number of experts shall be available who are able to negotiate and build relationships at international level in the organizational process of a gigaproject.
·       positive social influence: there shall be an opportunity for a national union that has not been seen for a long time. Irrespective of political orientation everybody shall be proud of Budapest, the efforts of the country, and of our Olympics. Staging the Olympic Games would be able to unite Hungary – this time for a long term – since the political transformation and after joining NATO and the European Union.
·       psychological effects: Hungary proves to the world and mainly to itself that it is able to think great and implement it – this positive mind may bring a change of paradigm which could place the country's and the nation's growth course to a higher curve in the decades to come.
·       an old dream comes true: during the competition the largest sports event of the world shall take place in the city and becomes available for those who love and understand sports.

Risks of the Staging the Olympic Games

·       the growth of the Hungarian economy which is less favourable than expected can cause disadvantageous balance conditions during certain phases of the Olympic preparations.
·       in case of lower growth – perhaps recession – of the world or European economy the stepped-up investments may cause a relatively larger burden on the budget which shall be forced to draw away resources from other areas.
·       investments already started cannot be stopped, even if the costs are underestimated, the Olympic Games mean a certain path the country is forced to follow and it draws other resources from the budget.
·       bad arrangements and extended constructions – even if the acceleration compensating for this is taken into consideration – may significantly increase the construction costs.
·       lower level of the EU resources or a decent participation of the private capital can jeopardize the implementation of the background infrastructural projects.
·       certain unfavourable conditions may cause social tension. It is inevitable to have good and continuous relations to the public.
·       the Olympic Games as the largest event of the world may call the attention of international terrorism.
·       if the post-utilization of the facilities are not planned properly unnecessary facilities are built with maintenance costs to be borne by the future generations.
·       the attendance of the Olympic events may not reach the level expected. It leads not only to revenue decrease but also to a loss of prestige.
·       in lack of appropriate and effective PR work it is impossible to obtain wide support from the population and the business operators in a historically sceptic and pessimistic nation („we take our pleasure sadly”).
·       the Olympic constructions and the Olympic events may disturb the usual life (traffic etc.) of the capital.


The Economic and Political Reality of the Olympic Games in Budapest

Technical aspects

PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) prepared a feasibility study in 2002 on the Budapest Olympic Games in 2012. The statements of this chapter are mainly based on this study.

Necessary Development

The PWC study states that Budapest – and Hungary – in their present state are not able to stage the Olympic Games since none of the domestic sport or other facilities are suitable to host Olympic competitions. In order to change this situation it is necessary to build:
·       a central Olympic stadium
·       4 football stadiums
·       11 covered sports arenas
·       16 special sport facilities.
According to the Olympic requirements the majority of the facilities (appr. 80%) should be placed in Budapest within 50 km from the Olympic village. Furthermore
·       an Olympic village for 16 000 people and
·       a media village for 17 000 people have to be built in Budapest for the participants of the Olympic Games and for the representatives of the media.
Finally, the infrastructural state of Budapest and of the country is not suitable to host the Olympic events. In order to overcome these difficulties it is necessary to build
·       300 km motorway
·       400 km other expressway
·       25 km underground, as well as fast line
·       61 km city main road
·       3 highway bridge
and to reconstruct
·       1.350 km railway line.

The majority of these infrastructural developments is part of the present (independent from the Olympic Games) middle term (or partly long term) development plans and certain traffic developments have to be implemented earlier than planned. From this point of view the Olympics are nothing else but an accelerated infrastructure development.

Selection of Venues

The proper selection of venues – in particular the positioning of the Danube – can be significant for the success of the Hungarian bid. It is obvious that the Municipality of Budapest has a decisive say in appointing the venue and the support of the capital is unavoidable to make the necessary lands available.
In case of all three versions rural venues shall also be included. The football qualifying rounds could be organised in Debrecen, Győr, Székesfehérvár and Szeged, the riding and bowing competitions in Gödöllő, while the sailing races could be hosted by Balatonfüred.

Other Feasibility Issues

·       accommodation
The fulfilment of the IOC accommodation requirements is not expected to be the strongest point of the bid. A plan to bridge over the lack of 7300 hotel rooms should be presented in an authentic way. The costs for the hotel investments linked to the Olympic Games shall amount to 50 billion HUF which – according to PWC assumption – can totally be financed from private capital.
·       technology
Today Hungary is well prepared in the field of telecommunications and information technology. In order to meet the Olympic requirements further developments and extensions are needed. Their post-utilization does not mean a problem.
·       safety
Reviewing the safety requirements of IOC and the general situation of safety policy it is necessary to involve approximately 25 000 people from the police and the private safety services to carry out these tasks. In a period of intensive terror threat the assistance of the army and NATO may also become necessary to guarantee safety (It is a new task to create cooperation between the Hungarian armed forces and NATO in this special field). In this area it is hard to overestimate the costs. According to Time Athens spent 1,5 million USD (HUF 300 billion ) on safety in 2004, which is twelve times more than planned.
·       healthcare
The bid cities are required to present the country’s general health care level and the effectiveness of its health care system. In spite of the well-known Hungarian anomalies and with regard to all developments and investments planned for the health care (e.g. urgent treatment and hospital development) we may say that Hungary would be able to ensure an appropriate level health service for the sportsmen, the Olympic family, the organizers and during the Games for the tourists coming to Hungary. The special health care programme of the Paralympic Games should also be integrated into the health programme of the Olympics.
·       environment protection
Besides sports and culture IOC deems the environment protection the third pillar of the Olympic Movement. The case of the Hungarian environmentalist and the European Swimming Championship on Margitsziget, for example, indicates the up-to-date character of this issue. The PWC study investigates the environmental effects of the Olympics in several periods.
In the preparation phase certain unfavourable effects may be experienced on the venue of the facility constructions that may last for years in case of larger facilities. (Environment protection costs are included in the investment programme of the facilities). During the Games the number of people in the city shall exceed the permanent population of Budapest by 30%; this maximum load shall affect all areas of every day life (traffic, sewage disposal, waste production, use of public places etc.). The supply necessary at that time – except for sewage disposal – can be solved without main facility investment. Following the Games as a positive effect the presently disordered, contaminated and damaged city areas shall be utilized and new green areas shall be created.
·       meteorology
Although the climate conditions of Hungary are appropriate for staging the Olympic Games the actual unfavourable weather conditions may delay or hinder certain sport events. The period between May and September is the most suitable for organising the Games.
·       the Paralympic Games
The Paralympic Games are organized two weeks after the Olympic Games. All Paralympic events can be staged in the Olympic facilities with minimal reconstruction. It is an EU requirement, independent from the Olympic Games, that all transport vehicles and public institutions should be reconstructed not later than 2010 in a way acceptable for disabled persons. Therefore, the PWC study did not mention the costs of these developments in its calculation.

Budgetary Aspects

According to the PWC study with an average annual GDP growth of 4% the country is able to produce the capital demand necessary for the Olympics, that are not covered by the EU funds or the private capital involved. On one hand, the organisational expenditure (the so-called OCOG costs), and on the other hand the necessary – mainly infrastructural – investment costs should be provided.

Budget of the Investments

The demand for investments means the preparation of the city and the country for being able to host the Games. According to the PWC study this amounts to 4200 billion HUF as follows (billion HUF):
Development of Transport                               3.182
City rehabilitation and environment protection     159
Public works development                                  236
Investments for tourism                                     199
Technology and security                                      87
Sport facilities                                                   152
Olympic village                                                   68
Media village                                                      91
Total                                                             4.175

This amount has decreased in the meantime as the motorway construction ran up in the previous years; by 2015 the „radial” and „ringroad” motorway construction for Hungary shall be finished. Hopefully the capital shall implement the construction of the underground line 4 and 5, as well as the enlargement of airport Ferihegy by that time. It is a further advantage if we obtain the right to stage the 2012 Football World Championship. We have to modernize 4 football stadiums for the Hungarian-Croatian European Football Championship that shall be suitable – without reconstruction – for the Olympics too. To summarize: the updated investment demand of the Budapest Olympics is estimated around 3500 billion HUF which is less than three years ago. With regard to the EU funds and the participation of the private capital (20%), the state subvention would amount to HUF 2800 billion .
It is also an essential factor that approximately 75% (HUF 2100 billion ) of the infrastructural investments in connection with the Olympic preparations is necessary apart from the Olympics and these would be part of a non-Olympic budget too for a 10-year period till 2016. So there is a HUF 700 billion  (annually HUF 70 billion) difference between the Olympic and non-Olympic versions of the state budget. The costs for infrastructure development that are necessary exclusively for the Olympics would come up to one per cent of the state budget divided by ten years.
The budget can raise the HUF 700 billion  resource demand surplus by transferring the money from other areas of the budget structure (infrastructure not necessary for the Olympics, welfare transfers), by increasing the budget revenues (taxes), by decreasing the state deficit more slowly than planned or by combining these possibilities (PWC statement). These are serous issues if we look at them in 2005. However, it can be assumed that in 2016 Hungary shall be in a different situation. By that time the positive effects of the EU membership shall be accomplished, the state budget reform that is due for a long time shall be implemented and the structure of the budget shall markedly be transformed. As far as the standard of living is concerned, the country shall come closer to the average of the European Union. So the budgetary measures in connection with the Olympic Games shall have different effect in the time they are implemented. However, it is true that it should be investigated before the decision is made and the PriceWaterhouseCoopers feasibility study should be updated accordingly. The Olympic Games being a path the country is forced to follow mean the largest risk of this undertaking. If the planning is wrong, if the preparation costs significantly increase due to unforeseeable reasons after winning the bid or the state, private or EU resources decrease staging the Olympic Games may cause a severe loss.
The HUF 700 billion  resource demand surplus at the same time means developments that can totally be post-utilized and improve the economic, social and infrastructural development level of the city. These developments include the Olympic and media village post-utilized as real estate, as well as hotels, safety and telecommunications infrastructure, the development of the shipping on the Danube, and post-utilized sport facilities for sport or non-sport purposes.
The finalization and presentation of the post-utilization concept of the Olympic infrastructure is an important chapter in preparing the public: it has to be proven that the country does not spend HUF 700 billion  only for these two weeks.

Political and Social Will

The decision-makers' standpoint

The preparation and implementation period for the Hungarian Olympic Games – with regard to the present one – comprises at least for parliamentary cycles so the agreement of all parliamentary parties is inevitable at the beginning. From the start the demand for the agreement concerns also the Municipality of Budapest.

In the framework of former initiatives in June 2001 the government made a decree on staging the 2012 summer Olympic Games. The government decree stipulated the direct tasks (preparation of a feasibility study, setting up a preparation committee). At its meeting in August 2001, the General Assembly of the Municipality of Budapest approved a resolution concerning the government’s initiative the essence of which is this: it supports the ideas of the government if a well-grounded bid can be submitted without risking the loss of prestige and if contractual guarantees supported by parliamentary decisions ensure in time and to the extent necessary the budgetary resources inevitable for implementing the developments necessary for the capital and its surroundings.

On 29 April 2003 in the Parliament, György Jánosi, Minister for Youth and Sport said he would like Hungary to organize the Olympic Games within a reasonable time but 2012 is not a realistic deadline. Later he mentioned that according to the government’s decision an inter-departmental coordination committee shall be set up to investigate after 2012 how soon the capital can be able to organize the Olympic Games without laying disproportionate and unbearable burden on the population and the budget. Other standpoints – Pál Schmitt, President of MOB gave an interview on 6th July 2005 (InfoRádió): „Budapest has to compete for the 2016 or 2020 Olympics.”

The political will known so far is basically positive but there are certain reservations in the issue, as well. As a next step it is necessary to form and present an unambiguously joint platform including all parties and organizations concerned – government, capital, Hungarian Olympic Committee – before the 2006 parliamentary elections. This is the main task of the Movement. Then the question of the Hungarian Olympic Games has to remain outside the election debate. The Olympic Games cannot be used for campaign purposes, it is not an issue for only one political party but it is a joint initiative.

The Public View

The general public support is of primary importance for the Hungarian decision-makers and for the IOC decisions, too. The relations to the public should be treated at an early stage and it should be done continuously. It should be the first step of the initiators to inform the public. They have to show all effects the organization of the Olympic Games means to allow the public to form its opinion on the basis of all relevant information and to align for the idea of the Hungarian Olympic Games.

Nearly 70% of the English general public supports the idea of the London Olympic Games, 20% is neutral and 12% is against it. This 70% means a minimal support rate (from the candidate cities Moscow had 77%, Paris 85% and Madrid 91% social support – source: IOC) but the support for the idea of the Budapest Olympic Games falls behind. According to the Gallup Institute this rate was 66% in February 2002 but this support has considerably decreased due to the political debates. With careful work this support rate can be achieved again. Previous experiences show that it helps to convince the Hungarian public if the initiative starts from the civil sector.

Standpoint of the civil sector (competition sector)

The private capital has to play a role in staging the Hungarian Olympic Games. 15 years after the political transformation the competition sector is the engine of the Hungarian economy. The dynamic development of the private sector has already grown out of the national frames and in certain branches it has a multinational feature. An influential manager class has been created which thinks in international dimensions and has a clear picture what advantages the Olympic Games have for its intention to expand. It is to be expected to be willing to make efforts and use its influence for the sake of the Olympic Games. The Budapest Olympic Movement offers opportunities also for the businessmen interested in the Olympic Games.

Chances for Hosting the Olympics

Question of Management

The excellent management played a decisive role in London winning the fight for the 2012 Olympic Games. Queen Elisabeth invited the members of the IOC committee evaluating the preparedness of the bid cities for lunch when they visited London, and when the Singapore decision was made Prime Minister Blair spent two days in the city and had personal conversations with the majority of the decision-making IOC members. But these were only the finishing touches. According to the general opinion London won because Coe, two times Olympic champion, was appointed to be the president of the London bid committee. In the person of Coe a well-known and acknowledged personality became head of the movement who also had excellent organizational skills and using his wide relations diplomatically made London win against Paris that was thought to have more chances. Budapest shall be in a more difficult situation when seeking a front personality for its bid. The selection of a person who is internationally known and acknowledged, speaking languages, having relations and organizational skills and who is acceptable for the whole Hungarian society – on the basis of the London example – influences the success of the Hungarian Olympic Games. A team is also needed: as the time is very short we have to find experts who are able to negotiate at international level, to build relationships, to prepare for the Olympics and to assist the work of the front man.

The task is hard but not impossible to solve. It was the twentieth time that Hungary organized the Formula-1 race at Hungaroring. As in case of the Olympic Games, great debates preceded to bring this event to Hungary, which attracts 150-200 thousand visitors – among them ten thousands of foreigners – every year („are we skilled enough?”) We obtained the right to stage this race against several other candidates who seemed to be more prepared. On the basis of twenty years’ experience the balance is positive, we solved the problem well. The five year prolongation that was signed last year shows that the critical and demanding licensees are still satisfied with the Hungarian organization.

The probable IOC standpoint

Hungary was one of the IOC founders in 1894 and since 1896 the country is permanent participant of the Games. With its 157 gold medals Hungary is an honoured member of the Olympic family but in spite of this – alone from the first ten of the Olympic medal table – it has never hosted the Olympic Games though several times it was quite close to it. At the time of the first modern Olympic Games in 1896 – as in 2004 – there were rumours from the Greek capital that they would not get ready in time so Hungary offered to stage the Olympics. Baron Coubertin investigated this possibility but finally Athens undertook the task. We could not obtain the rights for the 1920 Olympics as our country belonged to the defeated states after World War I and it has also been forgotten that we applied for the 1960 Olympics too but got only the fourth place.

The Movement is convinced that at the end of the first quarter of the 21st century Hungary could be ready to stage the Olympic Games and we also have chances to obtain the right for the first summer Olympic Games in Central Europe. It would benefit the nation to compile and submit a bid. During his last visit to Budapest Jacques Rogge confirmed the opinion: „You, Hungarians could excellently organize the Olympic Games. Submit your bid and do not forget the bid city and country may also win even if it does not stage the Games."

When considering our chances we have to differ between the two phases of the process. According to the PWC analysis Budapest has serious chances to get through the first phase and fight on as a bid city. In the second phase the IOC selects the host city from the bid cities. From all points of view Budapest is an ideal city for organizing the Games. However, the role of the Danube has to be pointed out but not only in the life of the city. The Danube as a river crossing several countries could be the motto of the Olympic Games: the Danube Olympics. The capital is beautifully situated – we should take advantage of it and place the sport venues, the Olympic and media village in this surroundings. This advantage of Budapest may well balance the possible weaknesses of the bid. It has to be emphasized that the Budapest Games mean the Olympics of the region! Namely it shall have unquestionable influence on Central Europe. Our geographical situation, our relation to the region, our aspirations as regional centre – all show into this direction. Our chances are increased by the fact that in Singapore in turned out: in 2012 a European city shall organize the Games which means that in 2016 probably (but not surely) another continent shall be the host (Rogge: „Europe is not excluded, but according to the customs it is probable that the following Games shall be hosted by the American continent), in 2020 it shall be Europe’s turn again. Furthermore it is an important guideline of the IOC that the size and costs of the Olympic Games should be limited as hosting the Games should not only be the privilege of the largest and richest cities. Furthermore, it is Central and Eastern Europe’s turn. It would be good for us to be the first in the region otherwise it would cause severe competitive disadvantages for us. Prague also plans to compete for 2016 and it won’t be a surprise if Warsaw joined the competition. The preparations for the 2016 Games should be started right after the 2006 elections. The 2016 bid shall be evaluated already in 2009.
The example of Paris shows that the best bid is not always enough. That is why it cannot be stated with complete certainty that the right to stage the 2016 or 2020 Olympic Games shall be awarded to Budapest. We can only state that our chance is real and if we fail our bid shall have more chances at a later date. It should not be interpreted as a failure if we won't win; we have to learn from it and win at the second time.